Vi Segnalo un Intervista/recensione di Four Futures: Life After Capitalism apparsa di recente su The guardian. L’autore il sociologo Peter Frase traccia un quadro di possibili scenari sviluppati su una scala temporale relativamente ridotta Sono affrontati e descritti diversi Temi Core con un approccio credo equilibrato e realistico. nessuna deriva transumanista / Singularity_ana, niente scemenze tipo Mind Uploading niente complotti ma analisi semplici e coerenti delle relazioni tra elite 1% ed il resto della popolazione man mano
Quattro possibili forme di futuro Two heavens Two Hells
Come tutti gli studiosi di sistemi complessi che utilizzano modelli statistici su basi dati molto estese non afferma che il futuro è scritto, non nega le prospettive utopiche, il potenziale delle tecnologie emergenti ma vede anche gli effetti terribilmente distopici di un potere quasi assoluto concentrato in pochissime mani, quoto alcuni passaggi che mi sembrano particolarmente significativi…
Sul ruolo delle tecnologie e dell’automazione…
Frase’s approach stands in stark contrast to other practitioners of the genre. Many mainstream futurists predict that automation will mean lives of leisure for all, as we’re liberated from our day jobs to become artists or artisans or lotus-eaters. Perhaps, Frase responds, but technology doesn’t dictate outcomes. Rather, it sets the parameters of possibility. Utopia is an option, but the robots alone won’t get us there. That’s because the distinctly dystopian features of our present – a small number of people control most of the wealth, and global warming is heating portions of the planet past habitable levels – won’t simply disappear with automation. The day after the robots arrive, Frase points out, capitalist class relations and a collapsing biosphere will still be with us.
Secondo Futuro “Rentism” Dittatura degli algoritmi [nrd]
Rentism is where abundance exists, but “the techniques to produce abundance are monopolised by a small elite”. This monopoly is maintained by owning not merely the robots, but the data that tells the robots how to do their job. A world where you can automate everything is a world where you can encode any task as information. You might have a very sophisticated robot, but you’ll still need to give the robot software that explains how to make pancakes or plunge your toilet. This software can be copyrighted as intellectual property, so that whenever you need your toilet plunged, you have to pay a fee.
Un futuro senza crescita
That means you’ll also need a job. The only problem is that there aren’t enough jobs, because all the socially useful work is done by machines. That leaves the labour required to sustain the ruling regime: you could be one of the lucky few who gets to write the software, or an intellectual property lawyer who protects it from infringement, or a cop who disciplines the large numbers of desperate people who are too poor to pay for it. But mostly, rentism will be prone to underemployment and stagnation, because the economy requires consumers and the jobless masses can’t afford to consume –