The Future of Jobs Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
The global workforce is expected to experience significant churn between job families and functions. Across the countries covered by the Report, current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs—two thirds of which are concentrated in routine white collar office functions, such as Office and Administrative roles—and a total gain of 2 million jobs, in Computer and Mathematical and Architecture and Engineering related fields. Manufacturing and Production roles are also expected to see a further bottoming out but are also anticipated to have relatively good potential for upskilling, redeployment and productivity enhancement through technology rather than pure substitution.
New and Emerging Roles
Our research also explicitly asked respondents about new and emerging job categories and functions that they expect to become critically important to their industry by the year 2020. Two job types stand out due to the frequency and consistency with which they were mentioned across practically all industries and geographies. The first are data analysts, which companies expect will help them make sense and derive insights from the torrent of data generated by technological disruptions. The second are specialized sales representatives, as practically every industry will need to become skilled in commercializing and explaining their offerings to business or government clients and consumers, either due to the innovative technical nature of the products themselves or due to new client targets with which the company is not yet familiar, or both. A particular need is also seen in industries as varied as Energy and Media, Entertainment and Information for a new type of senior manager who will successfully steer companies through the upcoming change and disruption.
Qui due note: 1. L’omnipresenza dei data analysts indica che l’intera industria non prevede e non concepisce che l’estremo data mining in corso possa essere propriamente proibito. Che la necessità di mantenere la democrazia possa essere avversa a questo ‘race to the bottom’ dei diritti che di per se non genera vantaggi per l’umanità, solo svantaggi a chi si attiene a leggi e considerazioni etiche. 2. Questi venditori specializzati… non ho capito bene cosa li rende diversi da quelli odierni. Più social media marketing? O magari un marketing digitale fondato sull’abuso dei dati di sorveglianza? Beh in tal caso si direbbe che la nuova rivoluzione industriale è quella della corsa alla sorveglianza!
Tornando sul discorso del RdE, ritengo gran parte delle tabelle seguenti di importanza rilevante:
Drivers of change, industries overall
Share of respondents rating driver as top trend,%
DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC Changing nature of work, flexible work 44% Middle class in emerging markets 23% (se ci fosse ridistribuzione ed RdE, ci sarebbe più middle class nei mercati emergenti) Climate change, natural resources 23% Geopolitical volatility 21% (!!!?!) Consumer ethics, privacy issues 16% (ma va) Longevity, ageing societies 14% Young demographics in emerging markets 13% Women’s economic power, aspirations 12% Rapid urbanization 8%
TECHNOLOGICAL Mobile internet, cloud technology 34% Processing power, Big Data 26% New energy supplies and technologies 22% Internet of Things 14% Sharing economy, crowdsourcing 12% Robotics, autonomous transport 9% Artificial intelligence 7% Adv. manufacturing, 3D printing 6% Adv. materials, biotechnology 6%
Le tecnologie che gli intervistati ritengono importanti nel periodo 2018–2020: »» Advanced robotics and autonomous transport »» Artificial intelligence and machine learning »» Advanced materials, biotechnology and genomics
Interessante questa tabella… tantissimi lavori middle class scompaiono, in calo addirittura i legai… intanto i nuovi lavori… beh, sono proprio pochi!
Net employment outlook by job family, 2015–2020 Employees (thousands, all focus countries)
- –4,759 Office and Administrative
- –1,609 Manufacturing and Production
- –497 Construction and Extraction
- –151 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media
- –109 Legal
- –40 Installation and Maintenance
- +492 Business and Financial Operations
- +416 Management
- +405 Computer and Mathematical
- +339 Architecture and Engineering
- +303 Sales and Related
In pratica possiamo fare riferimento al World Economic Forum per dire che i posti di lavoro sono in calo… il Report continua con ulteriori dati interessanti. Per esempio che le competenze digitali sono talmente importanti per qualsiasi posto di lavoro, anche quelli in calo da rendere il lavoro di reclutamento di lavoratori sufficientemente skillati più difficile in tutti gli ambiti.